What Are The Odds Of A Recession In 2024. Recession odds between now and september 2024 have dropped to 46 percent, according to experts’ average forecast in bankrate’s latest quarterly survey of economists. The probability of a recession happening by the end of 2025 remains unchanged at 45%.

With inflation falling, unemployment low and the federal reserve signaling it could soon begin cutting interest rates, forecasters are becoming increasingly optimistic. Percentage points, monthly, seasonally adjusted dec 1959 to aug 2024 (sep 6) smoothed u.s.